A new study published in The Lancet has said that a “ban on public events can bring down the COVID-19 R-value by 24 per cent in less than a month.”
“School closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2.”Study authors
The study looked at the correlation between implementing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions like lockdowns with the level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, as measured by the time-varying reproduction number or R-number that can help determine COVID-19 transmission. It was conducted by researchers at the University of Edinburgh, based on data from 131 countries.
The study measured the effect of various individual lockdown efforts like school closures or public events ban, as well as the effect of a combination of these phases, including a total lockdown, on COVID-19 transmission.
The study authors found that the measure which had the most statistically significant impact on reducing COVID-19 transmission was restrictions on public events. This means, this was the only measure that could significantly reduce transmission on its own without imposing other restrictions. For example, the study found that other intervention like orders to stay at home or shut offices and schools worked best when they were implemented together.
“Our study can inform decisions on which measures to introduce or lift, and when to expect to see their effects, but this will also depend on the local context — the R number at any given time, the local healthcare capacity, and the social and economic impact of measures.”Harish Nair, a professor at University of Edinburgh, said in a statement released with the study
The study is also the first to look at how relaxing measures affects transmission they said. It found that lifting of bans on gatherings of more than ten people and re-opening of schools were found to be most strongly associated with an R-value increase of 25 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively, after 28 days.
Lifting bans on public events increased R by 21 per cent, removal of internal movement restrictions by 13 per cent, and removing stay-at-home orders increased R by 11 per cent, they added.
Banning public events reduced R by 24 per cent, while school closures brought it down by 15 per cent, workplace closure by 13 per cent, restrictions on internal movement by 7 per cent, and stay-at-home restrictions by 3 per cent, the study says.
What Links Public Events to the Risk of High COVID-19 Transmission?
According to the authors of the study, public events are more likely to be super-spreader events where many people can get infected.
The study comes as India begins to unlock and come out of one of the strictest lockdowns, and as the UK and much of Europe are grappling with lockdowns again amidst their second wave of COVID-19.
As per guidelines by the Health Ministry on 30 September, public gatherings with over 100 participants outside containment zones are allowed.
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