Future pandemics will emerge more often, spread more rapidly, do more damage to the world economy and kill more people than COVID-19 unless there is a transformative change, warns a major report on biodiversity and pandemics. The report by Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) was prepared by 22 leading global experts in the field. They call for a 'seismic shift,' if we want to change course.
A sixth major global health pandemic since the 'Spanish Flu' of 1918, COVID-19 has largely been a result of human activity, says the report.
It warns that an estimated another 1.7 million currently ‘undiscovered’ viruses exist in mammals and birds – of which up to 850,000 could have the ability to infect people.
Current Economic Impact is 100 Times Cost of Prevention
Dr Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance and Chair of the IPBES workshop, said, "There is no great mystery about the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic – or of any modern pandemic. The same human activities that drive climate change and biodiversity loss also drive pandemic risk through their impacts on our environment."
He says, "Changes in the way we use land; the expansion and intensification of agriculture; and unsustainable trade, production and consumption disrupt nature and increase contact between wildlife, livestock, pathogens and people. This is the path to pandemics.”
How Do We Prevent Future Pandemics?
It's time for a global call for action. Experts say the pandemic risk can be significantly lowered by reducing the human activities that drive the loss of biodiversity, by greater conservation of protected areas, and through measures that reduce unsustainable exploitation of high biodiversity regions. This will reduce wildlife-livestock-human contact and help prevent the spillover of new diseases, says the report.
“The overwhelming scientific evidence points to a very positive conclusion,” said Dr Daszak.
“We have the increasing ability to prevent pandemics – but the way we are tackling them right now largely ignores that ability. Our approach has effectively stagnated – we still rely on attempts to contain and control diseases after they emerge, through vaccines and therapeutics. We can escape the era of pandemics, but this requires a much greater focus on prevention in addition to reaction.”
COVID-19 cost $8-16 trillion globally by July 2020, it is further estimated that costs in the United States alone may reach as high as $16 trillion by the 4th quarter of 2021, points out the report.
Here are some solutions on offer:
Launching a high-level intergovernmental council on pandemic prevention to provide decision-makers with the best science and evidence on emerging diseases.
Countries setting mutually-agreed goals or targets within the framework of an international accord or agreement – with clear benefits for people, animals and the environment.
Institutionalizing the ‘One Health’ approach in national governments to build pandemic preparedness, enhance pandemic prevention programs, and to investigate and control outbreaks across sectors.
Developing and incorporating pandemic and emerging disease risk health impact assessments in major development and land-use projects, while reforming financial aid for land-use so that benefits and risks to biodiversity and health are recognized and explicitly targeted.
Ensuring that the economic cost of pandemics is factored into consumption, production, and government policies and budgets.
Reducing zoonotic disease risks in the international wildlife trade through a new intergovernmental ‘health and trade’ partnership; reducing or removing high disease-risk species in the wildlife trade; enhancing law enforcement in all aspects of the illegal wildlife trade and improving community education in disease hotspots about the health risks of wildlife trade.
Indian Experts Weigh In
Dr Jagdish Krishnaswamy, Senior Fellow, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE) says little has been learned.
"The manner in which large dams are being pushed in the Eastern Himalayas which is a global biodiversity hotspot, coal mines pushed in elephant corridors leading to an escalation of human-elephant conflicts, the ripping apart of fragile Himalayan slopes by the Chardham project and loosening of environmental regulations under the new EIA notification are all pointers to a disconnect or a disregard for all lessons from the pandemic and what we thought would lead to sobering introspection of human-nature interactions under current development pathways."
He hope the IPBES helps stem the tide.
Dr Mahesh Sankaran, Professor, National Centre for Biological Sciences warns India has many factors that could potentially put it at high risk.
"India has many features that can potentially come together to create the ‘perfect storm’ for the spillover of novel diseases in the future – high biodiversity, high population densities and extensive land transformation and fragmentation that has increased the extent of the human-wildlife interface."
Dr Sejal Worah, Programme Director, WWF India calls for immediate action, saying, "It is still not too late to change policies and practices at a global, national and local level so that the risk of future pandemics is minimised."
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