Indians should brace themselves for another wave of COVID-19 which is likely to peak in October, says the forecaster which accurately predicted the peak of the second wave in the country.
The prediction has been made by a mathematical model created by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at IIT Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively, reported Bloomberg.
The next wave, however, according to the forecaster, is set to be a much smaller one compared to the devastating second wave which, at its peak recorded over 40,000 cases a day.
No Time for Complacency
With public places opening up in full swing, and even schools, colleges and offices following suit, researchers fear complacency could further drive the wave.
Moreover, recent studies have pointed to the COVID vaccines being less affective against the Delta and Delta plus variants making it all the more challenging to control the spread of the virus.
The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently warned that some vaccinated people may spread the virus at the same rate as unvaccinated people and that the Delta variant spreading as easily as chickenpox.
Could Herd Immunity help soften the blow of the next wave?
Data from the 4th nationwide seroprevalence survey conducted by the Indian Centre for medical Research (ICMR) found that around 70 percent of the country's population has developed protective antibodies against COVID-19.
Antibodies against a pathogen are produced by the body following vaccination or natural infection, and can be taken as a partial marker of herd immunty.
What's concerning about this data is that it is lopsided, with states like Kerala (44.4 percent) and Assam (50.3 percent) having very low seroprevalence as compared to other states like Madhya Pradesh (79 percent) and Rajasthan (76.2 percent).
“If infection begins to increase in a few large states, the present balance will tip, and cases are likely to begin growing again in the country as a whole.”Dr Paul Kattuman, professor in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, quoted by Bloomberg
According to experts, stepping up vaccination coverage and public health efforts is key to tackling any future waves of COVID.
(Written with inputs from Bloomberg.)
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